CHARLOTTE, N.C. — During Wednesday’s NASCAR playoffs media day, all 16 of the drivers visited with The Athletic and answered a series of eight questions about this year’s 10-race postseason, which begins Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Among the topics we wanted to know about:
— Other than yourself, who will win the championship?
— Which driver will be the biggest surprise early elimination?
— Which playoff track worries you the most?
— Which playoff track are you most looking forward to?
— Which non-playoff track do you wish was in the final 10 races?
— What is your preferred NASCAR championship format?
— In light of the Austin Dillon penalty after Richmond, what do you think is the maximum allowable contact to win on the last lap?
— Other than your own, which playoffs crew chief would you like to work with?
Playoff drivers were promised anonymity in order to speak candidly in giving their answers, but the panel consisted of (in alphabetical order): Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe, Harrison Burton, William Byron, Austin Cindric, Chase Elliott, Ty Gibbs, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Daniel Suárez and Martin Truex Jr. Below are the results.
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2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs: All 16 drivers and their chances to win the title
1. Who will win the championship?
Drivers could not pick themselves for this answer, but there was a pretty clear favorite among the playoff field: Bell, who is coming off two straight Championship 4 appearances.
Eight of the 16 drivers chose Bell, with many citing his dominance earlier this season at Phoenix (“in a league of his own there,” one said) — which is once again the location of the championship race.
“They’ve been really clutch in the playoffs the last couple years, and as good as they were at Phoenix in the spring, they’ll be tough to beat,” one voter said.
“The run he’s had from 2022, 2023 and this year, you can see the progression,” another driver said. “He’s one of the best cars week in and week out.”
The only other drivers to receive multiple votes were Larson (four) and Reddick (two). Drivers expressed caution over picking Larson because although he may have the strongest team and car in many weeks, that’s not necessarily the case at the championship.
“He should win, but I don’t necessarily think he’s the favorite because we go to Phoenix and it’s one race,” one driver said.
No other drivers received even a single vote to be the champion except for Hamlin, who has famously never won the title and is now 43 years old.
“He has been very good throughout the year at a lot of different tracks,” said the driver who voted for Hamlin. “He’s put in the time and he’s been too good for too long to not get it.”
By the way, if you counted the votes (Bell 8, Larson 4, Reddick 2, Hamlin 1) and realized there’s one missing? That’s because one driver declined to vote in this category.
“I don’t care if it’s not me,” he said.
2. Which driver will be the biggest surprise early elimination?
It’s not a shock Truex was the most-mentioned driver in this category with four votes (though it was widely split among a variety of drivers).
“They’ve struggled the last handful of months and they don’t have a lot of momentum right now,” one Truex voter said.
Other drivers receiving multiple votes included Keselowski, Logano and Bowman (two each). But in general, drivers said there was a strong chance no one will be safe in the land mines of Round 1 and 2, which makes the outcome very difficult to predict.
“It could be anybody,” one driver said. “It’s so hard to pick because the first six races are so many wild cards.”
Though the vote was largely split, Martin Truex Jr. received the most for the question of which driver would be a surprise early elimination. (Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images)
3. Which playoff track worries you the most?
We decided to ask this question while wondering if there would be more of a split between Talladega and the playoff debut of Atlanta’s superspeedway version — or perhaps even one of the road courses — but that wasn’t entirely the case.
As per tradition, it was Talladega that continued to loom largest on the minds of playoff drivers. Seven drivers mentioned ‘Dega as their most feared track, and for obvious reasons.
“You just never know; you could be leading on the last lap and finish 30th,” one said.
“It worries me more than Atlanta because it’s deeper in the playoffs,” said another Talladega voter.
Atlanta did get four votes, joining the Charlotte Roval and Bristol (two votes each) as the only other tracks to be mentioned multiple times.
“Just because it’s the first one of the playoffs,” one driver said of his Atlanta vote. “You’ve got 16 guys, a lot of guys can win and you can get tore up really easy and put yourself behind the 8-ball. It’s just a huge wild card right away.”
4. Which playoff track are you most looking forward to?
Drivers mentioned every track but Talladega in answering this question; most choosing to answer the question as whichever place they run the best.
Phoenix actually got the most votes (three) because, as one driver said, “that’s where they give the big trophy.”
But a pattern also emerged among the other answers, with drivers expressing a fondness for all the tracks in Round 3 (Las Vegas, Homestead and Martinsville) since they can actually race all-out in that round without any wild cards. It’s tough to give an exact tally for this voting because it had a variety of partial answers; several drivers wanted to pick all of the Round 3 tracks or some combination of Las Vegas and Homestead, etc.
Bristol and Watkins Glen also received multiple votes.
5. Which non-playoff track do you wish was in the final 10 races?
Darlington’s temporary removal from the playoffs due to the Summer Olympics was on the mind of many drivers, six of whom voted for it to be back in the final 10 races (and it will be next season, which makes it somewhat of a moot point).
“That is just a track and a race that really sets the tone for our sport and should help decide the champion,” one Darlington voter said.
“It’s a tough race,” another said. “If you suck, you’re going to lose a lot of points to the guys who don’t suck.”
The Charlotte oval also was mentioned twice, as drivers would prefer to see Charlotte’s playoff race contested on the 1.5-mile intermediate track instead of the Roval. And perhaps surprisingly, Dover and Richmond received two votes each as well.
Gateway (which will be in the playoffs next season) also got a vote, as did Sonoma and Road America (which isn’t currently on the Cup schedule at all).
Finally, one driver cast an advance vote for Homestead, which is currently in the playoffs but will fall out of the final 10 races next season — already to that person’s lament.
Darlington’s return next year to its usual playoff-race spot will be a welcome change in the NASCAR garage. (Meg Oliphant / Getty Images)
6. What is your preferred NASCAR championship format?
This question generated the most conversation among the driving corps, as only two of the 16 drivers said they thought NASCAR should retain the current format. An additional driver said he was not sure.
The other 13 drivers were divided among the following proposals (all of which were their ideas, not suggestions from The Athletic):
The current format, with a modification of either a two- or three-race championship round as opposed to a single race (six votes)
Several drivers suggested the final multi-race round would have different track types: An intermediate and short track for a two-race round or those two tracks plus a road course for a three-race final round.
“To define the entire season with one particular race is pretty crazy,” another driver said.
Season-long championship (three votes)
The old-school method of deciding the NASCAR champion (used until 2004) is still on the minds of many fans — and apparently some title contenders as well.
“It rewards excellence,” one voter said of the season-long format. “The body of your work is so important.”
Said another: “Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick were within one point of each other this past weekend (after Darlington). Seems like it works pretty good.”
A return to the original 10-race format (two votes)
“The old Chase,” as one said.
Eliminate eight of the 16 drivers after the first five races, then a five-race championship round (one vote)
“You have to have five races of consistency to win it and you have eight guys who have a shot at it,” this person said. “So it adds the excitement, but you’re not going to get a runaway.”
Most wins in a season (one vote)
The driver who said the champion should be the season’s winningest driver was passionate about it because it would still create NASCAR’s desired “Game 7” moment, given the top drivers at the end of the season are often separated by only a win or two. The tiebreaker, he said, would be whoever won the last race.
“When you’re watching Martinsville in April, you’re not like, ‘I wasted my time and money watching someone win their second race of the year,’” he said. “You should feel like, as a fan, ‘If I don’t buy the ticket to this race or I don’t watch it on TV, I’m missing something critical to the season.’ Every race matters.”
Austin Dillon’s controversial win at Richmond brought up an issue with no clear answer — how much contact is too much in an effort to win? (Logan Whitton / Getty Images)
7. Where is the line?
We asked the drivers: “In light of the Austin Dillon penalty after Richmond, what do you think is the maximum allowable contact to win on the last lap?”
NASCAR’s unprecedented midweek ruling to strip Dillon’s playoff eligibility after he wrecked multiple drivers in separate incidents on the final lap of Richmond has still left drivers unclear on what exactly they’re allowed to do to win a race, and their answers reflected somewhat of a split.
Though each answer was slightly different, here’s our best attempt to sort the responses into categories:
You can wreck one person for the win, but not two (five votes)
This group of drivers felt wrecking another competitor for the win would still be legal, but doing it to multiple cars is what got Dillon in trouble.
“It’s like the Chicken Nugget Meme: Guy dies after eating 246 chicken nuggets, so 245 is the limit,” one voter said. “Clearly, you cannot do the combo shot.”
“You can wreck one, but you have to be within a car length or two,” another said.
“One car, one car length,” said another.
Not allowed to wreck someone for the win intentionally, but contact is OK (four votes)
“Coming from five (car lengths) back and blowing a corner and dumping a guy is excessive and not really racing,” one voter said. “You can’t just have full-out dumping of people. If they spin out, you have to be racing hard; it can’t just be completely intentional.”
“I think if you put somebody in the fence, they let it slide. You can spin a guy out for the win and he hits the fence and you can still win,” said another.
Another voter put it simply: “Your eyes will tell you.”
It’s all circumstantial/judgment calls (four votes)
This group of drivers seemed aggravated or annoyed the line isn’t clearer or more specified.
“I hate judgment calls, so whatever it takes to eliminate judgment calls,” one said.
Can wreck someone for the win as long as it’s not a right-rear hook (three votes)
Some drivers felt it was the right-rear hook of Hamlin that got Dillon’s win stripped, after NASCAR had suspended Elliott and Bubba Wallace for similar incidents in past races.
“The rule actually hasn’t changed because the precedent of right-rearing someone has been there,” one voter said. “The extremity of how you do it really matters.”
8. Which crew chief would you like to have?
Drivers could not vote for their own crew chief, and a few struggled with this question. Ultimately, there were some clear favorites: Hamlin crew chief Chris Gabehart (8 votes), Larson crew chief Cliff Daniels (5 votes) and Bell crew chief Adam Stevens (4 votes), with two drivers opting to vote for more than one.
The playoff field was most impressed with Gabehart, with voters praising his intelligence and style.
“He’s super smart and he’s got a personality he’s got to manage,” one driver said. “The way he leads that race team is really impressive.”
“He’s very calculated and understands the big picture,” said another.
Daniels was called “a robot” by one driver and another voter said Daniels does “an amazing job of keeping his driver informed and motivated.”
Stevens may be underrated by the public despite being a two-time champion crew chief, but the playoff drivers seem to be well aware of his skills.
“Car is always fast. Calm. Proven track record,” one driver said. “I don’t see how this guy isn’t the best crew chief in the playoffs.”
Byron crew chief Rudy Fugle (“a magician”) and Blaney crew chief Jonathan Hassler (“dude is locked in all the time”) also received one vote apiece.
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(Top photo of the No. 20 car of Christopher Bell, the drivers’ favorite to win the championship: Logan Riely / Getty Images)
